I am pleased to share a detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s performance and outlook. After two challenging years in 2021 and 2022 for the Web3 and crypto ecosystem, Bitcoin closed 2023 above $40,000, signaling a long-term recovery. Today, we are witnessing unprecedented momentum.

In November 2024, Bitcoin reaches an all-time high, supported by increased volumes, a surge in stablecoin supply, robust BTC ETF inflows, and revitalized mining activity.

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin’s Price Momentum: Last week, Bitcoin surged to $93,000, inching closer to the $103,000 target with room for further upside.
• ETF Inflows: U.S. spot BTC ETFs experienced significant inflows, boosted by post-election market optimism.
• Mining Activity: Mining operations are on track for a record-breaking year.

The Bitcoin Rally

Global macroeconomic conditions have markedly improved, signaling recovery in both traditional and crypto markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated rate cuts, amplified by the recent U.S. election results, opening a new chapter for Bitcoin and broader digital asset adoption.

We believe crypto will gain further traction, driven by the normalization of global markets and anticipated regulatory clarity in the U.S. These factors should enhance demand from central banks, institutional investors, and hedge funds for Bitcoin ETFs and mining activity, cementing Bitcoin’s position in global markets.

Strategic View (12 Months)

• Price Outlook: Bitcoin’s key support is at $58,000. The target range is $103,000 to $140,000, offering potential gains of up to +55% for long-term investors.
• Public Bitcoin Reserves: While rumors persist about a U.S. Public Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, confirmation could propel prices beyond $140,000.

Chart : Bitcoin (Log) on a weekly chart basis

U.S. Spot BTC ETF Trends

The net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs underscore growing interest from institutional banks and hedge funds. This trend is expected to persist into Q1 and Q2 of 2025, strengthening Bitcoin’s market position.

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BTC Mining activity

This year is shaping up to be a pivotal one for Bitcoin mining, marked by what we anticipate will be a significant mining rally. Mining activity has been in contraction since the most recent Bitcoin halving in April 2024. This halving event led to a reduction in the Bitcoin Hashprice Index, the primary metric for miner remuneration.

Historically, each halving cycle sparks a Bitcoin price rally a few months later. However, the Hashprice Index tends to recover more slowly, with its upward movement confirmed slightly after Bitcoin’s price rally.

Currently, we observe positive signals in the Hashprice denominated in USD. However, the Hashprice in BTC terms remains near recent lows due to the continued expansion of Bitcoin mining farm capacities. This increase in capacity has created temporary downward pressure on miner profitability.

Looking ahead, the coming months are likely to be particularly lucrative for miners. At the current pace, returns could exceed expectations, driven by robust demand for Bitcoin and increased utilization of the Bitcoin blockchain.

Hashprice in USD and BTC

Dont miss the last opportunity for mining

Your sincerely,

Jean Yves Guillou
Chief Investment Officer, Automata Group LTD (Vancelian)

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Risk Disclaimer: Digital assets are subject to high volatility and may not be suitable for all investor profiles. They carry risks of capital loss as well as potential value depreciation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Ensure you fully understand the risks before investing.